55%

Win Probability

+4.3

Projected Margin

CI: [-15.7 to +24.3]

Boom Potential

Jason Myers

Bust Risk

Jameson Williams (47%), Juwan Johnson (60%), Bucky Irving (48%), Omarion Hampton (51%), Marcus Mariota (51%)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Marcus Mariota	NYG	18.1	21.0	MODERATE	HIGH
RB	Bucky Irving	ATL	15.2	16.0	MODERATE	HIGH
RB	Omarion Hampton	KC	11.7	10.0	MODERATE	LOW
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	IND	20.6	25.0	BOOM	HIGH
WR	Jameson Williams	LAR	13.9	17.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	CAR	9.7	11.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	IND	8.5	10.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
D/ST	Bears D/ST	CLE	6.6	10.0	MODERATE	HIGH
WR	Rashee Rice	LAC	17.2	16.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chargers D/ST () 52% boom / 17% bust

DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. 42% boom / 19% bust

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 50% boom / 18% bust

ADD Evan Engram (TE) 31% boom / 23% bust

Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 presents a favorable matchup against Auto DraftKings (4-10). With projected 136 points vs opponent's ~113 points, we enter as clear favorites. KEY MOVES: Start Marcus Mariota (QB13 ECR vs NYG's 31st-ranked pass defense), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR in elite matchup vs IND), and Bears D/ST (top-5 defense vs struggling Cleveland). WEATHER ALERT: Jordan Love (QB) faces extreme cold in Green Bay (9°F, -35 wind chill) - benched in favor of Mariota. Hunter Henry benched due to Buffalo's elite TE coverage (rank 2, allow only 3.6 fppg). LOCKED: Bucky Irving (8.1 pts actual from TNF). FLEX: Rashee Rice over Tetairoa McMillan (16.0 vs 13.0).

Key Insights

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is ECR #1 WR with 96.5-yard receiving prop vs IND's 25th-ranked WR defense
Bears D/ST in smash spot: CLE offense ranks 29th, low 38.5 game total, CHI -7.5 favorites
Hunter Henry sits vs BUF's #1 TE defense (allows only 3.6 fpts/game) - Juwan Johnson starts
Marcus Mariota has rushing upside (30.5 prop line) vs soft NYG defense in 46.5-total game
Bucky Irving locked with 8.1 pts from Thursday - below 14.5 pre-game projection
Rashee Rice faces toughest matchup: LAC allows fewest WR fantasy points in NFL (13.5/game)
DET-LAR has highest game total of week (54.5) - Williams benefits as WR in that offense
Tetairoa McMillan (ECR WR14) sits with favorable NO matchup (28th vs WR) in favor of Williams

Matchup Status (Week 15)

136.1 - 93.4 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Completed (15)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs LLM
Marcus Mariota	QB	QB	✓ 14.7	18.2	21.0	-6.3
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	✓ 8.1	15.2	16.0	-7.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	✓ 7.5	11.7	10.0	-2.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	✓ 18.3	20.6	25.0	-6.7
Rashee Rice	WR	WR	✓ 12.1	17.2	16.0	-3.9
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	✓ 7.0	9.7	11.0	-4.0
Jameson Williams	WR	RB/WR/TE	✓ 26.4	13.9	17.0	+9.4
Jason Myers	K	K	✓ 24.0	8.5	10.0	+14.0
Bears D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	✓ 18.0	6.7	10.0	+8.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 2.4	10.8	10.0	-7.6
Hunter Henry (bench)	TE	BE	✓ 2.8	10.3	6.0	-3.2
Jacoby Brissett (bench)	QB	BE	✓ 20.6	13.9	13.0	+7.6
Jordan Love (bench)	QB	BE	✓ 13.9	14.8	14.0	-0.1
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 4.5	13.2	13.0	-8.5
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 5.6	10.0	7.0	-1.4

Games Pending (2)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Rams D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	4.2	5.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench)	WR	IR	0.0	---

136.1 Actual

136.0 LLM Total

136.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Completed (14)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs ESPN
Caleb Williams	QB	QB	✓ 19.0	15.9	---	+3.0
Jonathan Taylor	RB	RB	✓ 13.1	17.6	---	-4.5
A.J. Brown	WR	WR	✓ 12.1	16.8	---	-4.7
Justin Jefferson	WR	WR	✓ 4.2	15.7	---	-11.5
Dalton Schultz	TE	TE	✓ 21.6	8.9	---	+12.7
Emeka Egbuka	WR	RB/WR/TE	✓ 10.4	12.0	---	-1.6
Jake Elliott	K	K	✓ 7.0	8.0	---	-1.0
Saints D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	✓ 6.0	5.9	---	+0.1
C.J. Stroud (bench)	QB	BE	✓ 23.4	17.3	---	+6.1
Courtland Sutton (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 24.3	13.1	---	+11.2
Jakobi Meyers (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 12.1	11.7	---	+0.4
Khalil Shakir (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 11.5	10.5	---	+1.0
Sean Tucker (bench)	RB	BE	✓ 6.7	2.9	---	+3.8
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench)	WR	BE	✓ 16.4	14.7	---	+1.7

Opponent Games Pending (2)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	RB	12.6	---
David Njoku (bench)	TE	BE	0.0	---

93.4 Opp Actual

95.0 Opp LLM Total

105.9 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: +41.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 14.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 49% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust (this week - balanced). DEN defense rank 5 vs QB (tough). EXTREME COLD: 9°F, -25 to -35 wind chill. Josh Jacobs questionable limits game script flexibility. Cold weather historically suppresses passing, affects ball grip. Mode: BUST. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 2-14 range, high end of bust).

Context: O/U: 42.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 5^ˢ | ECR: 17^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM (historical - high ceiling). XGB: 13% boom, 39% bust (this week - bearish). HOU defense rank 2 vs QB (elite - allow only 12.5 fppg). QB21 ECR. Game total 42.5. Week 17 stash value but tough Week 15 matchup. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 13.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 2^ˢ | ECR: 21^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Marcus Mariota (WSH vs NYG)

Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 42% BOOM (historical - elite boom potential). XGB: 18% boom, 51% bust (this week - bearish). NYG defense rank 31 vs QB (worst in league, allow 23.6 fppg). Game total 46.5. Cold weather (27°F, 13 mph) minor concern. Despite XGB caution, matchup is elite smash spot. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 21.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 31^ˢ | ECR: 13^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 42%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	-	-2.1	-2.1
13	BYE	14.8	-	23.3	+8.4
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BYE	18.2	-	15.4	-2.8
10	BYE	16.3	-	18.7	+2.4
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BYE	16.9	-	11.3	-5.6
7	BYE	0.0	-	3.9	+3.9
6	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	ATL	0.0	-	16.2	+16.2
3	BYE	17.0	-	20.3	+3.2
2	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	BYE	0.2	-	0.0	-0.2

Averaging 7.6 pts vs 6.0 projected (+28%)
Trending down: 7.1 avg (last 3) vs 11.4 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.22)
Season high: 23.3 pts in Week 13

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 65% MODERATE (historical - strong floor). XGB: 11% boom, 48% bust (this week - conservative). ATL defense rank 20 vs RB (middle). RB9 ECR by experts. TB -4.5 favorite = positive game script. Game total 44.5. Sean Tucker inactive boosts workload. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 16.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 44.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 20^ˢ | ECR: 9^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 7.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical - consistent). XGB: 13% boom, 43% bust (this week - bearish). SF defense rank 12 vs RB (tough). RB42 ECR (very low). TEN heavy underdog = abandon run game script. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 7.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 44.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 12^ˢ | ECR: 42^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 10% boom, 51% bust (this week - bearish). LAC defense rank 15 vs RB (neutral). RB28 ECR (low). 'Hot hand' approach per Chargers OC = uncertain usage. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 10.0 pts (within 6-18 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 15^ˢ | ECR: 28^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST (historical - low floor). XGB: 14% boom, 54% bust (this week - bearish). WSH defense rank 28 vs RB (favorable - allow 19.5 fppg). RB34 ECR. Game total 46.5 (high). Good matchup but limited ceiling. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 10.0 pts (within 4-16 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 28^ˢ | ECR: 34^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.6 | LLM 25.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 23% bust (this week - conservative). IND defense rank 26 vs WR (favorable). WR1 ECR by experts. SEA -13.5 favorite = positive game script. Game total 42.5. Despite XGB's cautious signal, elite expert consensus + matchup + game script strongly favor BOOM. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 25.0 pts (within 21-36 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 26^ˢ | ECR: 1^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE (historical - volatile). XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust (this week - balanced). NO defense rank 18 vs WR (neutral). WR13 ECR. Game total 40.5 (low). MHJ out = more targets. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 40.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 18^ˢ | ECR: 13^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: RULED OUT Week 15 with heel injury per Reddit (347 upvotes) and HC Gannon press conference. 'Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) ruled out for Week 15.' Expected to return this season but not this week. is_confirmed_out=True with source. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 42.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 6^ˢ

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM (historical - high ceiling player). XGB: 25% boom, 32% bust (this week - mixed). LAC defense rank 2 vs WR (very tough - allow only 13.5 fppg). WR5 ECR by experts (talent). Game total 42.5. Matchup is concerning but talent/volume override. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 2^ˢ | ECR: 5^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12% boom, 47% bust (this week - concerning). LAR defense rank 19 vs WR (neutral). WR15 ECR. HIGHEST GAME TOTAL: 53.5 (DET vs LAR shootout). Shootout environment elevates all pass catchers. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 17.0 pts (within 10-22 range).

Context: O/U: 53.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 19^ˢ | ECR: 15^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 47% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

Trending down: 14.7 avg (last 3) vs 20.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. Rookie WR in CHI offense. CLE defense rank 8 vs WR. Limited upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 38.5^ˢ | ECR: 35^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	GB	10.3	8.0	11.0	+0.7
13	PHI	8.3	-	7.6	-0.7
12	PIT	7.6	-	9.1	+1.5
11	MIN	6.2	-	5.7	-0.5
10	NYG	3.4	-	8.1	+4.7
9	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BAL	4.8	-	0.9	-3.9
7	NO	4.9	-	3.1	-1.8
6	WSH	4.8	-	9.1	+4.3
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	LV	5.8	-	1.6	-4.2
3	DAL	2.7	-	19.8	+17.1
2	DET	2.7	-	1.5	-1.2
1	MIN	3.2	-	0.7	-2.5

Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 16% boom, 43% bust (this week - conservative). CAR defense rank 24 vs TE (favorable). KAMARA OUT - more red zone looks. Game total 40.5 (low). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within 4-15 range).

Context: O/U: 40.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 24^ˢ | ECR: 16^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 56% BUST (historical - limited ceiling). XGB: 32% boom, 24% bust (this week - more optimistic). BUF defense rank 2 vs TE (elite - allow only 3.6 fppg). TE13 ECR. Game total 49.5 (high) but TE usage capped by elite BUF coverage. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within 1-10 range).

Context: O/U: 49.5^ˢ | Def Rank: 2^ˢ | ECR: 13^ˢ

MC (Historical): BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 49% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 27% boom, 22% bust (this week - balanced). DEN defense rank 5 vs QB (tough). EXTREME COLD: 9°F, -25 to -35 wind chill. Josh Jacobs questionable limits game script flexibility. Cold weather historically suppresses passing, affects ball grip. Mode: BUST. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 2-14 range, high end of bust).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 21% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 34% MODERATE (historical - volatile). XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust (this week - balanced). NO defense rank 18 vs WR (neutral). WR13 ECR. Game total 40.5 (low). MHJ out = more targets. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19%

Notes: RULED OUT Week 15 with heel injury per Reddit (347 upvotes) and HC Gannon press conference. 'Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) ruled out for Week 15.' Expected to return this season but not this week. is_confirmed_out=True with source. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43%

Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical - consistent). XGB: 13% boom, 43% bust (this week - bearish). SF defense rank 12 vs RB (tough). RB42 ECR (very low). TEN heavy underdog = abandon run game script. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 7.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (QB) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 73% BOOM (historical - high ceiling). XGB: 13% boom, 39% bust (this week - bearish). HOU defense rank 2 vs QB (elite - allow only 12.5 fppg). QB21 ECR. Game total 42.5. Week 17 stash value but tough Week 15 matchup. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 13.0 pts (within 7-22 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 11.7 pts vs 9.4 projected (+24%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.91)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs DET

Projections: ESPN 4.2 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 39% BUST, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17% boom, 49% bust (this week - bearish). DET high-powered offense. Game total 53.5 (highest of week). DST18 ECR. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	ARI	6.9	9.0	6.0	-0.9
13	CAR	7.5	10.0	1.0	-6.5
12	TB	5.7	-	20.0	+14.3
11	SEA	5.4	-	5.0	-0.4
10	SF	6.4	-	5.0	-1.4
9	NO	8.2	-	10.0	+1.8
7	JAX	6.7	-	9.0	+2.3
6	BAL	6.2	-	16.0	+9.8
5	SF	7.0	-	-2.0	-9.0
4	IND	5.7	-	6.0	+0.3
3	PHI	5.2	-	7.0	+1.8
2	TEN	7.4	-	9.0	+1.6
1	HOU	5.6	-	12.0	+6.4

Averaging 8.0 pts vs 6.4 projected (+24%)
Trending up: 9.0 avg (last 3) vs 6.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.73)
Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 61%

Notes: MC: 56% BUST (historical - limited ceiling). XGB: 32% boom, 24% bust (this week - more optimistic). BUF defense rank 2 vs TE (elite - allow only 3.6 fppg). TE13 ECR. Game total 49.5 (high) but TE usage capped by elite BUF coverage. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within 1-10 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 10.8 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 54%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST (historical - low floor). XGB: 14% boom, 54% bust (this week - bearish). WSH defense rank 28 vs RB (favorable - allow 19.5 fppg). RB34 ECR. Game total 46.5 (high). Good matchup but limited ceiling. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 10.0 pts (within 4-16 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 44% bust. Rookie WR in CHI offense. CLE defense rank 8 vs WR. Limited upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 8.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
14	GB	10.3	8.0	11.0	+0.7
13	PHI	8.3	-	7.6	-0.7
12	PIT	7.6	-	9.1	+1.5
11	MIN	6.2	-	5.7	-0.5
10	NYG	3.4	-	8.1	+4.7
9	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	BAL	4.8	-	0.9	-3.9
7	NO	4.9	-	3.1	-1.8
6	WSH	4.8	-	9.1	+4.3
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	LV	5.8	-	1.6	-4.2
3	DAL	2.7	-	19.8	+17.1
2	DET	2.7	-	1.5	-1.2
1	MIN	3.2	-	0.7	-2.5

Averaging 5.6 pts vs 4.6 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.01)
Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	8.9	9.0	28%	48%	23%	MEDIUM
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	15.7	13.4	18%	60%	22%	LOW
Jake Elliott	K	PHI	8.0	7.9	17%	29%	54%	LOW
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	16.1	16.9	13%	68%	19%	LOW
Saints D/ST	D/ST	NO	5.9	8.2	11%	28%	61%	LOW
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	12.6	10.1	10%	40%	51%	LOW
Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	12.0	12.1	9%	36%	55%	LOW
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	16.8	15.7	9%	35%	56%	LOW
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	17.6	20.4	9%	36%	55%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 23%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 54%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)

Saints D/ST: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 61%)

Kenneth Gainwell: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 51%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

ADD Chargers D/ST ,

Boom%52%

Bust%17%

EV0.0

DROP Marvin Harrison Jr. WR

Boom%42%

Bust%19%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%50%

Bust%18%

EV12.1

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (14-28)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%31%

Bust%23%

EV8.3

BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)

ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,

Boom%31%

Bust%29%

EV7.4

BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (1-13) BOOM: 26% (7-22)

ADD Zach Ertz ,

Boom%28%

Bust%24%

EV0.0

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
Chargers D/ST		0.0	52%	17%	0.0%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.1	50%	18%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	8.3	31%	23%	0.0%
Chiefs D/ST	D/ST	7.4	31%	29%	0.0%
Zach Ertz		0.0	28%	24%	0.0%
Michael Badgley	K	8.6	27%	54%	0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	10.3	26%	28%	0.0%
Commanders D/ST		0.0	24%	38%	0.0%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.0	22%	28%	0.0%
Patriots D/ST	D/ST	8.8	22%	43%	0.0%
Chuba Hubbard	RB	11.5	21%	31%	0.0%
Quentin Johnston		0.0	21%	30%	0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	10.5	20%	9%	0.0%
Aaron Rodgers	QB	14.6	19%	56%	0.0%
Matthew Golden	WR	9.0	18%	48%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Aaron Rodgers	14.6	BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22%	19%	56%
Kyler Murray	16.8	BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25%	12%	52%
Justin Fields	16.4	BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30%	12%	51%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.1	BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13%	50%	18%
Isiah Pacheco	8.0	BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3%	22%	28%
Chuba Hubbard	11.5	BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29%	21%	31%
Trey Benson	8.8	BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24%	12%	56%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	8.9	BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14%	8%	58%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Matthew Golden	9.0	BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31%	18%	48%
Cooper Kupp	10.0	BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12%	16%	52%
Garrett Wilson	14.8	BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23%	16%	47%
Rashid Shaheed	10.1	BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32%	11%	58%
Keenan Allen	11.9	BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10%	9%	55%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	8.3	BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2%	31%	23%
Harold Fannin Jr.	10.5	BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16%	20%	9%
Colston Loveland	9.8	BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16%	10%	60%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Michael Badgley	8.6	27%	54%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.3	26%	28%
Evan McPherson	9.5	10%	60%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Chiefs D/ST	7.4	31%	29%
Patriots D/ST	8.8	22%	43%
Dolphins D/ST	8.7	14%	63%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-15 00:40

Matchup Summary

55.0%

Win Probability

+4.3

Expected Margin

136.0

My Team (LLM Proj)

95.0

Opponent (Proj)

32.7

Margin Std Dev

122.0

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -34.8 pts | Median: +8.2 pts | Ceiling: +49.5 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Marcus Mariota	QB	MED	14.7	5.5-26.9	↑15+: 57% \| ↓5-: 9%
Bucky Irving	RB	MED	8.1	5.1-24.1	↑15+: 44% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	7.5	3.6-24.3	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	18.3	6.2-30.5	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 5%
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	12.1	6.0-28.0	↑15+: 57% \| ↓5-: 5%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	26.4	3.8-25.0	↑15+: 48% \| ↓5-: 16%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	7.0	2.9-17.0	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 22%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	18.0	0.4-16.3	↑15+: 13% \| ↓5-: 39%
Jason Myers	K	MED	24.0	5.2-17.1	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 9%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jordan Love	QB	MED	13.9	6.5-27.8	↑15+: 54% \| ↓5-: 6%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	HIGH	20.6	4.0-27.9	↑15+: 64% \| ↓5-: 13%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	5.6	2.4-18.7	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 27%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	2.4	0.6-18.3	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 52%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	4.5	5.4-25.9	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 8%
Hunter Henry	TE	HIGH	2.8	3.5-21.9	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 25%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	5.0	1.1-18.1	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 34%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Caleb Williams	QB	HIGH	17.0	6.1-29.9	↑15+: 53% \| ↓5-: 6%
Jonathan Taylor	RB	HIGH	20.7	8.6-37.9	↑15+: 54% \| ↓5-: 0%
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	HIGH	10.1	1.7-24.0	↑15+: 22% \| ↓5-: 34%	$Kenneth Gainwell$
Justin Jefferson	WR	HIGH	13.4	5.5-22.8	↑15+: 38% \| ↓5-: 7%
A.J. Brown	WR	HIGH	15.7	2.8-29.0	↑15+: 48% \| ↓5-: 16%
Emeka Egbuka	WR	HIGH	12.1	3.4-24.2	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 22%
Dalton Schultz	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.8-17.2	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 30%
Saints D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	8.2	0.3-17.5	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 36%
Jake Elliott	K	HIGH	7.9	2.2-14.9	↑15+: 10% \| ↓5-: 32%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
C.J. Stroud	QB	HIGH	14.3	5.2-25.1	↑15+: 41% \| ↓5-: 9%
Sean Tucker	RB	HIGH	10.0	1.2-27.2	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 36%
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	HIGH	12.5	4.8-24.7	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 12%
Courtland Sutton	WR	HIGH	12.9	5.5-21.9	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 7%
Jakobi Meyers	WR	HIGH	12.5	5.4-21.8	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 8%
Khalil Shakir	WR	HIGH	10.8	1.8-20.4	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 25%
David Njoku	TE	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	19% @ 24.2	65% @ 14.2	17% @ 5.0	14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	29% @ 28.6	41% @ 18.7	30% @ 7.6	18.2
Rashee Rice	WR	43% @ 24.3	26% @ 16.0	31% @ 7.4	16.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	27% @ 22.8	47% @ 11.9	26% @ 4.8	13.0
Jason Myers	K	20% @ 16.9	47% @ 11.7	33% @ 6.4	11.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	32% @ 14.9	42% @ 9.1	26% @ 3.7	9.6
Jameson Williams	WR	24% @ 24.1	47% @ 15.7	30% @ 5.3	14.6
Bears D/ST	D/ST	19% @ 15.3	47% @ 8.1	34% @ 2.9	7.7
Marcus Mariota	QB	42% @ 22.3	43% @ 14.6	15% @ 4.8	16.4

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Jason Myers	K	8.5	10.0	MODERATE	51.6%	32.9%	15.5%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	0.0	0.0	BUST	42.5%	38.0%	19.4%
Jordan Love	QB	14.8	14.0	BUST	26.7%	51.8%	21.5%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	6.6	10.0	MODERATE	26.4%	44.4%	29.2%
Rashee Rice	WR	17.2	16.0	MODERATE	24.8%	43.2%	32.0%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	13.2	13.0	MODERATE	20.8%	56.9%	22.3%
Marcus Mariota	QB	18.1	21.0	MODERATE	17.6%	31.7%	50.7%
Juwan Johnson	TE	9.7	11.0	MODERATE	15.0%	24.9%	60.1%
Luther Burden III	WR	8.1	8.0	MODERATE	14.4%	41.9%	43.7%
Devin Singletary	RB	10.8	10.0	MODERATE	14.1%	32.3%	53.5%
Tyjae Spears	RB	10.1	7.0	MODERATE	13.4%	44.0%	42.6%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	4.2	5.0	BUST	13.3%	28.2%	58.6%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	13.9	13.0	MODERATE	13.1%	48.3%	38.6%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.9	17.0	MODERATE	12.2%	40.8%	47.1%
Bucky Irving	RB	15.2	16.0	MODERATE	10.9%	40.7%	48.5%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	20.6	25.0	BOOM	10.9%	65.8%	23.4%
Omarion Hampton	RB	11.7	10.0	MODERATE	10.4%	38.2%	51.4%
Hunter Henry	TE	10.3	6.0	BUST	8.5%	30.9%	60.6%

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-4	1838.0	1668.7	+169.3	93.1 vs 120.6	W3	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	9-5	1756.6	1765.4	-8.8	122.8 vs 120.0	W1	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	8-6	1822.8	1539.0	+283.8	136.1 vs 93.4	W4	78.6%
4	Wookie of the Year	8-6	1705.9	1731.9	-26.0	104.6 vs 115.1	W2	57.9%
5	Meat Pistols	8-6	1513.0	1664.9	-151.9	83.4 vs 193.0	L1	20.9%
6	Ryan's Rowdy Team	7-7	1759.9	1725.0	+35.0	115.1 vs 104.6	L2	29.1%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-7	1730.5	1660.2	+70.4	120.0 vs 122.8	L1	13.5%
8	Moms rules	6-8	1657.1	1755.2	-98.1	120.6 vs 93.1	L2	0.0%
9	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-8	1584.0	1680.6	-96.6	105.5 vs 149.4	L4	0.0%
10	Smooth Roosters	6-8	1664.4	1644.9	+19.5	193.0 vs 83.4	W2	0.0%
11	The Warsaw Pact	5-9	1644.5	1752.0	-107.5	149.4 vs 105.5	W1	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-10	1678.3	1767.4	-89.1	93.4 vs 136.1	L3	0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away Team	Score		Score	Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	93.1	@	120.6	Moms rules
4th and pinches	122.8	@	120.0	Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers	136.1	@	93.4	Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year	104.6	@	115.1	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols	83.4	@	193.0	Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	105.5	@	149.4	The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 15)

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD: Patriots D/ST

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Jordan Love | ADD: Patriots D/ST

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD: Keenan Allen

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD: Patriots D/ST

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "Jordan Love Week 12: 7.06 pts (BUST)" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Patriots D/ST: Rank 4, Proj 4.7" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Keenan Allen: WR14, Proj 11.2" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Rams D/ST boom prob: 13.3% (XGB)" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Jordan Love boom prob: 26.7% (XGB)" CORRECT

❌ FLOOR: "Love 21.4% boom rate" FALSE (actual: 30.8%)

❌ CONTRARIAN: "Patriots rank 6th" FALSE (actual: Rank 4)

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST, Jordan Love | ADD: Patriots D/ST, Sam Darnold

[Ack] Claims verified [Challenge SYNTHESIS] Keenan Allen is FLOOR disguised as value [Concede] FLOOR correctly identified Love as deadweight

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD: Patriots D/ST

[Ack] I incorrectly stated Love's boom rate as 21.4% when actual is 30.8%. I retract that claim. [Challenge SYNTHESIS] We need D/ST insurance, not bench WR depth [Concede] CEILING right that Rams D/ST is cleaner drop than Love

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST, Jordan Love | ADD: Keenan Allen, Patriots D/ST

[Ack] Claims verified [Challenge FLOOR] Misrepresented Love's boom rate by 50% [Concede] CEILING right about Patriots elite playoff schedule

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST, Jordan Love | ADD: Patriots D/ST, Garrett Wilson

[Ack] Patriots Rank 4 (not 6) strengthens my argument [Challenge SYNTHESIS] Ignores BYE WEEK GEMS - Garrett Wilson Rank 33 at 0.0 proj [Concede] FLOOR right that 3 QBs is roster inefficiency

Consensus: Majority

DROP: Rams D/ST (4/4) | DROP: Jordan Love (3/4) | ADD: Patriots D/ST (4/4)

2/4 agents agree

Dissent: CEILING: ADD Sam Darnold (QB streaming for Week 16) | SYNTHESIS: ADD Keenan Allen (WR depth, veteran floor) | CONTRARIAN: ADD Garrett Wilson (Bye week gem, Rank 33 WR)

Week 15 Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates (Reddit + Web Sources)

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI): RULED OUT Week 15 (heel). Coach Gannon expects return this season but not this week. [Reddit 347 upvotes]
Alvin Kamara (NO): OUT Week 15 (knee/ankle) - Devin Neal will be the Saints' lead back [Reddit 332 upvotes]
Josh Jacobs (GB): QUESTIONABLE (knee swelling) - key monitor for Jordan Love's game script [Reddit 208 upvotes]
Tee Higgins (CIN): OUT (concussion) - Chase Brown seeing massive volume boost without Higgins
CeeDee Lamb (DAL): CLEARED concussion protocol - back to full action
Kyle Pitts: MONSTER 45.6 PPR game Thursday - 11 rec, 166 yds, 3 TDs (Drake London out)
Mike Evans: Strong return - 12 targets, 6 catches, 132 yards in comeback game
MarShawn Lloyd (GB): Ruled OUT (calf/hamstring) - more work for Josh Jacobs if healthy
Deebo Samuel (SF): QUESTIONABLE (illness) - monitor for Tyjae Spears game script impact
Rome Odunze (CHI): QUESTIONABLE - impacts Bears offense vs CLE

Reddit Community Sentiment

Positive Buzz: - JSN ranked WR1 for Week 15 by multiple experts (580+ upvotes on start/sit thread) - Marcus Mariota + Terry McLaurin combo praised for Week 15 vs NYG (198 upvotes) - Bears D/ST getting love vs struggling Cleveland offense - Bucky Irving ranked top-10 RB across Vegas-based rankings

Concerns: - Jordan Love facing extreme cold (9°F, -25 wind chill) + Denver D ranks 5th vs QB - Rashee Rice tough matchup vs LAC (rank 2 vs WR) - Hunter Henry brutal spot vs BUF (rank 2 vs TE, allow only 3.6 fppg)

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

HIGH SCORING ENVIRONMENTS (Good for fantasy): - DET @ LAR: 53.5 total (Jameson Williams benefits) - BUF @ NE: 49.5 total (Hunter Henry in high-volume game) - NYG @ WSH: 46.5 total (Mariota + Singletary upside)

MODERATE GAMES: - ATL @ TB: 44.5 (Bucky Irving solid floor) - SF @ TEN: 44.5 (Tyjae Spears limited role) - IND @ SEA: 42.5 with SEA -13.5 (JSN positive game script)

LOW SCORING / WEATHER CONCERNS: - DEN @ GB: 42.5 but 9°F weather (Jordan Love risk) - CAR @ NO: 40.5 (McMillan + Juwan Johnson floor games) - CHI @ CLE: ~38.0 (Bears D/ST smash spot)

Matchup Deep Dives

SMASH SPOTS: 1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs IND - #1 WR ECR, IND 26th vs WR, SEA -13.5 favorite 2. Marcus Mariota vs NYG - NYG 31st vs QB (allow 23.6 fppg), 46.5 game total 3. Bears D/ST vs CLE - CLE 29th vs DST, extreme cold, struggling offense 4. Bucky Irving @ ATL - ATL 20th vs RB, positive game script as TB -4.5 favorite

CONCERNING SPOTS: 1. Rashee Rice @ LAC - LAC 2nd vs WR (allow 13.5 fppg), tough shadow coverage 2. Hunter Henry vs BUF - BUF 2nd vs TE (allow only 3.6 fppg) 3. Jordan Love vs DEN - DEN 5th vs QB, extreme cold weather 4. Tyjae Spears vs SF - SF 12th vs RB, heavy underdog game script

Final Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN STARTERS: - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR, elite matchup) - Marcus Mariota (smash spot vs NYG) - Bucky Irving (RB9, favorable game script) - Bears D/ST (smash spot vs CLE)

SOLID STARTERS: - Rashee Rice (talent overcomes tough matchup) - Jameson Williams (DET/LAR shootout) - Jason Myers (K2 ranking, good offense)

ACCEPTABLE/BORDERLINE: - Tetairoa McMillan (low game total, but targets) - Juwan Johnson (Kamara OUT helps) - Devin Singletary (good matchup, low ceiling) - Omarion Hampton (uncertain role vs KC)

BENCH/AVOID: - Jordan Love (extreme cold + tough defense) - Hunter Henry (brutal TE matchup) - Tyjae Spears (SF defense + game script) - Marvin Harrison Jr. (OUT) - Jacoby Brissett (HOU 2nd vs QB)

GAMEDAY UPDATE (Dec 14, 2025)

Final Injury Confirmations

Marcus Mariota (WSH): HEALTHY - Expected to start vs NYG
Rashee Rice (KC): HEALTHY - Full participant all week, no designation
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA): HEALTHY - Veteran rest day, playing vs IND
Jameson Williams (DET): HEALTHY - Coming off 96-yard game, NFL Community MVP
Jordan Love (GB): HEALTHY - But facing extreme cold (9F, -35 wind chill) at Denver
Omarion Hampton (LAC): HEALTHY - Starting RB vs KC

Weather Concerns

Green Bay @ Denver: 9F with extreme wind chill (-35). Love benched for Mariota.
Seattle vs IND: Indoor at Lumen Field - no concerns for JSN

All Starters Confirmed Active

No late scratches affecting our lineup. Locked and loaded for Week 15.

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Kyle Pitts historic 45.6 PPR game (1541 upvotes)
MHJ ruled OUT Week 15 (347 upvotes)
Kamara OUT Week 15 (332 upvotes)
Josh Jacobs questionable with knee swelling (208 upvotes)
Mariota/McLaurin cooking in Week 15 (198 upvotes)

Positive Buzz: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marcus Mariota, Bucky Irving, Bears D/ST

Negative Buzz: Hunter Henry, Jordan Love (cold), Rashee Rice (matchup)

Mixed Buzz: Tetairoa McMillan, Tyjae Spears

Sources

Vegas Lines (2025-12-13)
Defense Rankings (2025-12-13)
Weather Forecast (2025-12-13)
Expert Rankings (2025-12-13)
Reddit Discussion (2025-12-13)

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

5.7

Our Team MAE

18 players

5.7

Opponent MAE

9 players

5.6

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.7

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.5	10.0	24.0	+14.0
Opponent	TE	Dalton Schultz	8.9	-	21.6	+12.7
Opponent	RB	Kenneth Gainwell	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
Free Agent	TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	0.0	-	12.0	+12.0
Opponent	WR	Justin Jefferson	15.7	-	4.2	-11.5
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.9	17.0	26.4	+9.4
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.2	13.0	4.5	-8.5
Our Team	D/ST	Bears D/ST	6.6	10.0	18.0	+8.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	16.0	8.1	-7.9
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	10.8	10.0	2.4	-7.6
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	13.9	13.0	20.6	+7.6
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.6	25.0	18.3	-6.7
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	8.1	8.0	14.4	+6.4
Our Team	QB	Marcus Mariota	18.1	21.0	14.7	-6.3
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	4.2	5.0	-1.0	-6.0
Free Agent	RB	Chuba Hubbard	0.0	-	4.8	+4.8
Opponent	WR	A.J. Brown	16.8	-	12.1	-4.7
Opponent	RB	Jonathan Taylor	17.6	-	13.1	-4.5
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	11.0	7.0	-4.0
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.2	16.0	12.1	-3.9
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.3	6.0	2.8	-3.2
Opponent	QB	Caleb Williams	16.1	-	19.0	+2.9
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	11.7	10.0	7.5	-2.5
Opponent	WR	Emeka Egbuka	12.0	-	10.4	-1.6
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	10.1	7.0	5.6	-1.4
Opponent	K	Jake Elliott	8.0	-	7.0	-1.0
Opponent	D/ST	Saints D/ST	5.9	-	6.0	+0.1
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	14.8	14.0	13.9	-0.1
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Steelers D/ST	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3

Our Team MAE

16 players

7.0

Opponent MAE

10 players

13.6

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	QB	Sam Darnold	0.0	-	22.3	+22.3
Free Agent	RB	Devin Neal	0.0	-	15.4	+15.4
Opponent	K	Brandon Aubrey	8.9	8.9	24.0	+15.1
Opponent	QB	Patrick Mahomes	17.9	20.1	6.3	-13.8
Opponent	WR	DJ Moore	9.1	11.9	0.6	-11.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.6
Opponent	D/ST	Vikings D/ST	5.2	6.3	15.0	+8.7
Opponent	RB	Nick Chubb	5.3	7.5	0.3	-7.2
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	12.1	8.0	14.7	+6.7
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.9	22.0	28.1	+6.1
Opponent	WR	Keon Coleman	6.7	9.2	3.6	-5.6
Opponent	TE	Dalton Kincaid	10.0	9.6	14.1	+4.5
Opponent	WR	Malik Washington	8.4	8.2	4.0	-4.2
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.3	10.0	14.0	+4.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	6.8	9.0	6.0	-3.0
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	10.3	8.0	11.0	+3.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Commanders D/ST	0.0	-	3.0	+3.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	10.0	7.8	-2.2
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.3
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.3
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	16.4	16.0	16.1	+0.1
Opponent	RB	Ollie Gordon II	3.2	7.8	7.7	-0.1
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	15.3	19.0	19.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.8	17.3	17.3	+0.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Opponent	RB	Ray Davis	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

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XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.